PROPHET 9
TM

Trevor McDonald

P · R · 25 · San Francisco · as of July 19, 2026
▼ Weak regression candidate (low confidence)
cohort standing · not the signal
−50pct
gap
vs peers (cohort standing)
17th underlying
67th surface
Underlying17
Surface67
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Engine: Consensus · carries across views

The Trevor McDonald 2026 projections read his skill-implied ERA against his surface results: his results are leading his underlying skill, a regression signal. It is a pitcher's skill-vs-surface read, framed through MLB analytics rather than box-score noise, a 2026 MLB projection refreshed nightly with calibrated ranges, comparables, and an injury-risk read. Built on baseball analytics that separate underlying skill from the box score.

His results are running ahead of his skill, a regression signal. P9's read: the box score is out in front of his underlying skill, which hasn't kept pace. a −.029 divergence on the validated skill-vs-surface axis. His cohort standing (where he ranks vs peers, not the signal): skill 17th, results 67th · a −50 rank gap. This is a low-confidence read on the validated signal axis.

The full file

His per-engine projections, calibrated 80% ranges, both readings (Panel and Ledger), trajectory sparklines, comparables, injury-risk read, and tonight's per-game numbers are inside.

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