The Scorecard
Every call, graded in public — sliced every way.
The published-call record: hits, misses, and voids, with the one number that matters — how often our stated probabilities actually came true. Daily Edition · refreshed nightly · signal as of Aug 10
Calls resolved
3624
of 3654 published
Hit rate
39%
1294–2049 · 3343 graded
P&L
-219.03u
2526 calls staked 1u
Calibration
+2.8 pp
said 36% · hit 39%
Voids / pending
281 / 30
pending — Mon, Aug 10 · excluded from hit rate
All-time: our calls stated an average 36% chance and hit 39% of the time — across 3343 graded calls.
Reliability — stated vs. actual
Consensus· point size = sample count
On the diagonal = honest. Above = under-confident; below = over-confident. Point size = sample.
Stated vs. actual on the calls we published — reconciles to this ledger. (The model-wide calibration scoreboard, over every prediction, is on the Track Record page.)
By probability bucket
| Bucket | Said | Hit | Δ | n | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 9% | 21% (45/219) | +11.9 | 219 | -1.49u |
| 10–20% | 16% | 21% (113/547) | +4.5 | 547 | -64.73u |
| 20–30% | 24% | 29% (265/926) | +4.3 | 926 | -122.40u |
| 30–40% | 35% | 38% (148/388) | +3.4 | 388 | +8.17u |
| 40–50% | 44% | 47% (159/340) | +2.3 | 340 | -23.10u |
| 50–60% | 55% | 58% (208/358) | +3.2 | 358 | -4.51u |
| 60–70% | 65% | 59% (230/392) | -6.2 | 392 | -19.69u |
| 70–80% | 74% | 73% (110/151) | -1.0 | 151 | +7.47u |
| 80–90% | 84% | 79% (15/19) | -4.8 | 19 | +3.26u |
| 90–100% | 94% | 33% (1/3) | -60.5 | 3 | -1.00u |
Hit rate over time
By market — All-time
| Market | Hit rate | Record | Said | Calib Δ | Voids | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR: 1+ | 18% | 63–286 | 10% | +8.2 | 41 | -42.26u |
| SB: 1+ | 19% | 67–278 | 19% | +0.7 | 55 | -21.94u |
| Hits: 2+ | 25% | 77–232 | 25% | +0.2 | 31 | -53.85u |
| Win | 37% | 110–186 | 35% | +2.2 | 15 | +17.99u |
| K: 6+ | 52% | 153–143 | 47% | +4.7 | 15 | -11.15u |
| ER: 2 or fewer | 60% | 176–118 | 65% | -5.3 | 17 | +3.04u |
| RBI: 1+ | 31% | 85–186 | 22% | +9.8 | 39 | -39.18u |
| IP: 6+ | 54% | 124–105 | 47% | +7.2 | 12 | +1.49u |
| Walks: 1 or fewer | 54% | 124–105 | 56% | -2.3 | 12 | -14.49u |
| H_against: 5 or fewer | 65% | 149–79 | 72% | -6.7 | 13 | -7.87u |
| Runs: 1+ | 41% | 88–126 | 27% | +14.2 | 20 | -31.74u |
| Total bases: 4+ | 25% | 33–101 | 21% | +3.2 | 6 | -14.46u |
| K: 8+ | 15% | 10–58 | 23% | -8.6 | 2 | -1.66u |
| Quality start | 43% | 29–38 | 32% | +11.4 | 3 | — |
| HRR: 2+ | 43% | 6–8 | 52% | -9.0 | 0 | -2.94u |
Return vs. market · All-time
P&L
-219.03u
2526 calls staked 1u
ROI
-8.7%
per unit staked
Priced
2526
of 3343 graded had a line
Profit-and-loss vs. the median captured book line, 1-unit flat stakes — All-time. Calls with no captured line are excluded (not counted as a loss).