The Scorecard
Every call, graded in public — sliced every way.
The published-call record: hits, misses, and voids, with the one number that matters — how often our stated probabilities actually came true. Daily Edition · refreshed nightly · signal as of Aug 01
Calls resolved
3082
of 3144 published
Hit rate
41%
1164–1686 · 2850 graded
P&L
-102.79u
2092 calls staked 1u
Calibration
+3.4 pp
said 37% · hit 41%
Voids / pending
232 / 62
pending — Sat, Aug 1 · excluded from hit rate
All-time: our calls stated an average 37% chance and hit 41% of the time — across 2850 graded calls.
Reliability — stated vs. actual
Consensus· point size = sample count
On the diagonal = honest. Above = under-confident; below = over-confident. Point size = sample.
Stated vs. actual on the calls we published — reconciles to this ledger. (The model-wide calibration scoreboard, over every prediction, is on the Track Record page.)
By probability bucket
| Bucket | Said | Hit | Δ | n | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 9% | 21% (45/216) | +12.2 | 216 | +0.51u |
| 10–20% | 17% | 23% (105/447) | +6.8 | 447 | -16.75u |
| 20–30% | 24% | 30% (192/647) | +5.7 | 647 | -69.37u |
| 30–40% | 35% | 37% (122/328) | +2.1 | 328 | +9.90u |
| 40–50% | 44% | 47% (157/333) | +2.7 | 333 | -19.92u |
| 50–60% | 55% | 59% (196/330) | +4.4 | 330 | +2.08u |
| 60–70% | 65% | 59% (225/384) | -6.3 | 384 | -20.47u |
| 70–80% | 74% | 73% (106/146) | -1.3 | 146 | +6.97u |
| 80–90% | 84% | 88% (15/17) | +4.3 | 17 | +5.26u |
| 90–100% | 94% | 50% (1/2) | -43.5 | 2 | — |
Hit rate over time
By market — All-time
| Market | Hit rate | Record | Said | Calib Δ | Voids | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 37% | 106–180 | 35% | +2.0 | 15 | +15.40u |
| K: 6+ | 53% | 151–135 | 47% | +5.4 | 15 | -4.66u |
| ER: 2 or fewer | 61% | 172–112 | 65% | -4.6 | 17 | +5.59u |
| HR: 1+ | 21% | 57–219 | 9% | +11.4 | 34 | -9.13u |
| SB: 1+ | 20% | 54–213 | 18% | +2.4 | 43 | +0.88u |
| Hits: 2+ | 25% | 59–175 | 24% | +1.0 | 16 | -40.09u |
| IP: 6+ | 55% | 120–99 | 47% | +7.6 | 12 | +1.43u |
| Walks: 1 or fewer | 54% | 118–101 | 56% | -2.6 | 12 | -14.78u |
| H_against: 5 or fewer | 67% | 145–73 | 72% | -5.6 | 13 | -3.22u |
| RBI: 1+ | 32% | 66–142 | 21% | +11.2 | 32 | -26.40u |
| Runs: 1+ | 38% | 56–91 | 25% | +12.9 | 17 | -28.94u |
| Total bases: 4+ | 29% | 20–49 | 19% | +10.1 | 1 | +3.40u |
| K: 8+ | 15% | 10–58 | 23% | -8.6 | 2 | -1.66u |
| Quality start | 43% | 29–38 | 32% | +11.4 | 3 | — |
| HRR: 2+ | 50% | 1–1 | 52% | -1.9 | 0 | -0.60u |
Return vs. market · All-time
P&L
-102.79u
2092 calls staked 1u
ROI
-4.9%
per unit staked
Priced
2092
of 2850 graded had a line
Profit-and-loss vs. the median captured book line, 1-unit flat stakes — All-time. Calls with no captured line are excluded (not counted as a loss).