We measure whether a hitter’s underlying skill has diverged from his box score — and we publish every call.Four-season public record →
Results · Signals · 2026
The 2026 scorecard
Every breakout and regression call published this season, with what the player has done since. Calls that went nowhere appear beside the ones that did not — the list is never sorted or filtered by outcome unless you ask it to be.
2026 is under watch
The season measures +8.9pp over a matched control, with a 90% interval of [−5.9, +24.2] — it crosses zero, so 2026 is not distinguishable from no effect. Most of the season’s windows have not matured. It is not called a decline and not called noise: it is flagged, kept separate from the four resolved seasons, and re-read in October 2026.
561 calls published · 2026 published calls · 561 match these filters — 256 closed, 281 open, 24 no reading. Every published call is in this list, including the ones that went nowhere; filters narrow it, they never conceal. Sorted by date called unless you change it. Showing 1–100 of 561, 100 per page.
CalledPlayerTierWhat we saidWhat happenedComparableWindow
2026-07-20Willson ContrerasFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +83 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-18
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-18
2026-07-20Manny MachadoFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +82 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-18
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-18
2026-07-20Francisco LindorFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +56 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-18
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-18
2026-07-20Brandon NimmoFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +96 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-18
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-18
2026-07-20Trea TurnerFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +38 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-18
+107
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-18
2026-07-20Pete AlonsoFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +78 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-18
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-18
2026-07-20Lane ThomasFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +57 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-18
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-18
2026-07-20Lars NootbaarFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +59 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-18
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-18
2026-07-20Fernando TatisFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +49 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-18
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-18
2026-07-20Vladimir GuerreroFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +53 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-18
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-18
2026-07-20Yordan AlvarezFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +66 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-18
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-18
2026-07-20Luis GarcíaFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +116 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-18
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-18
2026-07-20Gabriel MorenoFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +60 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-18
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-18
2026-07-20Julio RodríguezFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +75 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-18
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-18
2026-07-20Wilyer AbreuFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +102 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-18
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-18
2026-07-20Miguel VargasFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +62 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-18
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-18
2026-07-20Steven KwanTrue breakout (rebound)His underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +64 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-18
+107
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-18
2026-07-20Heriberto HernandezFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +63 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-18
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-18
2026-07-20Riley GreeneFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +69 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-18
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-18
2026-07-20Michael MasseyFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +58 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-18
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-18
2026-07-20Junior CamineroFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +91 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-18
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-18
2026-07-20Nolan SchanuelFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +61 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-18
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-18
2026-07-20James WoodFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +52 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-18
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-18
2026-07-13Freddie FreemanFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +59 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-11
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-11
2026-07-13Manny MachadoFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +56 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-11
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-11
2026-07-13Josh BellFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +96 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-11
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-11
2026-07-13Brandon NimmoFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +113 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-11
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-11
2026-07-13Pete AlonsoFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +65 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-11
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-11
2026-07-13Rafael DeversFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +116 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-11
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-11
2026-07-13Lane ThomasFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +86 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-11
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-11
2026-07-13Kyle TuckerFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +86 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-11
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-11
2026-07-13Tyler StephensonFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +52 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-11
+107
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-11
2026-07-13Garrett MitchellFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +68 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-11
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-11
2026-07-13Kyle StowersFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +66 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-11
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-11
2026-07-13Luis GarcíaFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +74 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-11
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-11
2026-07-13Julio RodríguezFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +56 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-11
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-11
2026-07-13Miguel VargasFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +67 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-11
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-11
2026-07-13Bryson StottFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +66 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-11
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-11
2026-07-13Michael MasseyFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +57 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-11
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-11
2026-07-13Colt KeithFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +101 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-11
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-11
2026-07-13Pete Crow-ArmstrongFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +81 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-11
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-11
2026-07-13Nolan SchanuelFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +41 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-11
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-11
2026-07-13Jac CaglianoneFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +78 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-11
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-11
2026-07-13James WoodFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +71 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-11
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-11
2026-07-13Cam SmithTrue breakout (rebound)His underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +59 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-11
+107
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-11
2026-07-13Cooper PrattFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +62 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-11
+107
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-11
2026-07-06Freddie FreemanFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +94 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Marcus SemienTrue breakout (rebound)His underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +76 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
+107
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Mike TroutFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +81 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Josh BellFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +106 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Brandon NimmoFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +110 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Pete AlonsoFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +90 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Edmundo SosaTrue breakout (rebound)His underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +122 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
+107
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Ryan McMahonTrue breakout (rebound)His underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +162 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
+107
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Rafael DeversFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +107 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Lane ThomasFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +49 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
+107
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Shohei OhtaniFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +89 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Kyle TuckerFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +48 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Trent GrishamFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +114 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Tyler StephensonFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +61 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Juan SotoFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +97 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Garrett MitchellFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +72 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Kyle StowersFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +99 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Yordan AlvarezFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +85 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Luis GarcíaFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +74 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Lawrence ButlerTrue breakout (rebound)His underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +74 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
+107
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Gabriel MorenoFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +57 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Alec BurlesonFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +79 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Julio RodríguezFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +51 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Miguel VargasFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +112 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Nick LoftinFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +64 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Steven KwanFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +48 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
+107
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Bryson StottFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +81 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Colton CowserFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +93 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
+107
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Vinnie PasquantinoTrue breakout (rebound)His underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +151 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
+107
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Dominic CanzoneFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +93 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Drew GilbertFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +52 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Colt KeithFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +90 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
+107
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Pete Crow-ArmstrongFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +80 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Kyle KarrosFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +68 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Joe MackFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +74 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Jac CaglianoneFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +130 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06Cam SmithFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +71 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
+107
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-07-06A.J. EwingFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +71 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-09-04
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-09-04
2026-06-29Marcell OzunaTrue breakout (rebound)His underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +131 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-08-28
+107
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-08-28
2026-06-29Mike TroutFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +130 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-08-28
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-08-28
2026-06-29Bryce HarperFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +52 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-08-28
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-08-28
2026-06-29Josh BellFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +113 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-08-28
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-08-28
2026-06-29Mookie BettsFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +52 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-08-28
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-08-28
2026-06-29Luis TorrensTrue breakout (rebound)His underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +73 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-08-28
+107
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-08-28
2026-06-29Pete AlonsoFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +99 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-08-28
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-08-28
2026-06-29Ryan McMahonTrue breakout (rebound)His underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +85 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-08-28
+107
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-08-28
2026-06-29Tyler O'NeillTrue breakout (rebound)His underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +62 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-08-28
+107
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-08-28
2026-06-29Andrew BenintendiFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +94 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-08-28
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-08-28
2026-06-29Mauricio DubónFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +71 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-08-28
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-08-28
2026-06-29Lane ThomasTrue breakout (rebound)His underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +67 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-08-28
+107
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-08-28
2026-06-29Connor WongFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +91 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-08-28
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-08-28
2026-06-29Shohei OhtaniFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +98 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-08-28
−105
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-08-28
2026-06-29Trent GrishamFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +134 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-08-28
−0
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-08-28
2026-06-29Tyler StephensonFlagged — no measured edgeHis underlying skill was running ahead of his results. (breakout · +60 divergence)
No reading
window closes 2026-08-28
+107
comparable players
Open · closes 2026-08-28
“Comparable” is what players at the same production level did over the same window — context for whether he would have improved anyway, not a judgement on the call. This page shows movement; it does not grade it. The measured effect, its comparator and its intervals are on the validation record.